2011年11月16日 星期三

Weigao weak 3Q11 result

Consumables sales grew 22.8% y/y in 3Q11 to rmb656M largely due to growth slowdown in infusion sets (+26.7%vs. 33% in 2Q), needles (+30.4% vs.39% in 2Q), prefilled syringes (+15.9% vs. 35%in 2Q) and blood bags (+5.9% vs. 18% in 2Q).
The pressure on consumables salesgrowth came from: 1) restriction on use of high-end infusions in five provinces; 2)elimination of unqualified distributors for intravenous catheters; 3) the productionsuspension in major pre-filled syringes clients for cGMP inspections, which areexpected to continue in 4Q and 1H12; and 4) slowing market growth for blood bags.

Weigao reduced underperformed distributors in 2H fordialyzers and intravenous catheters, and the impact was estimated as ~rmb10Mand ~rmb5M in Q3, respectively. Excluding the impact of restructuring, the y/ygrowth was ~35% y/y for needles and ~45% (vs. 5% in 3Q) for medical instruments.The impact in 4Q could be ~rmb20M

Gross margin was 55.6%,Management expects GM to be stable in2012, at around 55%, as pricing pressure for some high-value consumables could beoffset by slight price increases in low-value consumables.

Management revised guidance for sales growth in’12 from 30%+y/y to 26~28% y/y with 25% y/y growth for conventional consumables

2011年11月14日 星期一

Department store slowdown?

Golden Eagle's SSSG has remained resilient YTD, with 3Q11 SSSG at 26.5%. Warmer-thanusualweather in Oct and slower gold and jewelry sales (35-40% growth in3Q11 vs 50% in 1H11) might lead to a moderate slowdown in SSSG.

內地百貨業上半年業績現疲態之下,銀泰百貨(1833)仍保持六成盈利增長,不過,集團副總裁馬其華表示,集團重點店舖浙江省杭州的武林店的銷售,在10月份起錄得放緩,由首三季18%放緩至10月份的8%他坦言對第4季前景亦不看好,不過公司已做好應對歐債危機及中國經濟放緩的影響,相信可趁市場疲弱搶佔市場份額。

馬其華表示,除了經濟環境影響銷售外,杭州10月份天氣較去年熱,亦是同店增長放緩的原因之一。

信報:

金鷹董事長:三線城市消費意欲強 一二線城市奢侈品消費停滯

歐美經濟不振,國際知名的奢侈品品牌紛紛東來淘金,落戶中國一線城市的商業街。不過,中國經濟有放緩象;加上樓市和股市疲弱令財富效應減弱,大城市的購買力大不如前,商機已轉往新興的三線城市。高端百貨公司金鷹(3308)董事長王恒表示,奢侈品銷售不容樂觀,旗下主要銷售奢侈品的一線城市百貨公司近月銷售增長停滯,相信將蔓延至二線城市;反而奢侈品佔業務較少的三線城市消費意欲強大,首10 個月的同店銷售長錄得50%至80%增長。
股樓疲弱削財富效應
有中國百貨大亨之稱的王恒接受本報訪問時表示,旗下位於上海的百貨公司有50%銷售來自高檔奢侈品,從第三季起,銷售由以往16%至17%的增長,呈現停滯狀態,10 月更小幅滑落。二線城市店舖的奢侈品銷售只佔業務少於10%,因此10 月仍錄得雙位數增長;其中奢侈品銷售沒有增幅,只靠一般消費品拉動增長。而三線城市銷售,例如江蘇省的徐州、揚州、泰州和淮安等地的增長強勁,完全沒有受到影響,部分店舖首10 個月錄得50%至80%同店銷售增長,優於整體店舖的25%水平。
以公司所在15 個城市的消費品數字看,預料全年的消費品增長為16%,以第三季實際錄得17.8%看,第四季銷售會下挫3 至4 個百分點。他解釋,通脹高企影響了消費者信心,消費者總覺得「太貴了!」而不願意消費,再加上股市及房屋價格下跌,令消費者不願意消費,希望「打折再買」。他預料,該趨勢將持續至2012 年,一線城市的資產泡沫最嚴重,預料明年「絕對錄得倒退」,而二線城市也會部分錄得輕微倒退,惟他特別看好富庶的三線城市,認為增售增長會持續強勁。
三線城市宏調影響小
王恒解釋,該些三線城市受宏觀調控影響小,其收入和經濟增長均高於全國水平,但提供消費的商場則還是空白區域,因此消費者購買力強。目前金鷹也主力在三線城市開設新店,例如江蘇的溧陽及崑山等城市。
王恒認為,要在這些小城市站穩腳,不能單以傳統賣名牌的方式打入場︰ 「像現在做3 萬至5 萬方米(銷售面積)、只賣化妝品、國際名牌或服裝,它的發展空間會愈來愈受擠壓。」他指出,經營百貨公司有創意,金鷹在三線城市做一些有趣新組合,例如影院、溜冰、不同等級的SPA 和紅酒交易等,甚至希望台灣的誠品書店,以增強顧客的生活體驗,他強調︰ 「百貨公司要走全方位生活化的方位才能立足」,例如在三線城市江蘇宿遷開店時,就引入台灣飲品店及蘋果電腦的專賣店,令百貨公司在城市化的過程中佔一個角色,為市民引入新的生活體驗。
撰文:穆彤

2011年11月11日 星期五

戰意頗弱,自我增值一翻

組合經歷10月急促反彈後,11月上旬表現欠佳,在主力股份威高(1066)影響下,組合表現只能一時跑贏一時跑輸恒指。威高周二將公布業績,可能預示業績不佳,特別是原材料價格急升,毛利率可能跌得較預期多。但自己看好中國醫療行業前景(又犯了看得太遠毛病?),又預計通脹回落,所以繼續持有。

威高的表現完全抵消了愛股中信証券、高鑫及投機小肥羊的回報。把握機會在商務部延長批核時間的良機買入小肥羊,而在周四已全數沽清,雖然獲利頗豐,但由於投資注碼控制,對組合整體回報未有決定性影響。是時候檢討自己在押注特別情況時的投資比重是否太低。

中信証券雖然周四急跌一成,但筆者持股是IPO時認購,記得當時中信証券乏人問津,逆向投資果然是爭取較高回報及較低風險的好方法。

忽上忽落的市況,正好反映市場無法預測歐債的發展。筆者最近勤練英文,為自己增值,買了一本英文書,"Buy and Hedge" 學習如何以長線組合立場上,思考對沖。自己在跌市時的對沖處理不太好,可以學習一下新方法,又可練英文。

2011年11月9日 星期三

Link REIT interim result takeaway

The Link REIT announced an interim result with DPU increased by 19.4%yoy to $63.11cents. Revenue grew 10.1%yoy to $2,887mn. The growth of DPU outpacing revenue is due to lower total property expenses and financial expense.

Revenue growth remains steady. Retail shops rental grew 11.3%yoy, contributing 59.9% of total revenue. Gross revenue from car parks increased 11.6% supported by both short term and monthly parking. Nan Fung Plaza is on track with 98.4% occupancy rate and average monthly unit rent increased by 3.7% since acquisition completed. The Link has completed 22 projects of AEI since IPO. There are 32 projects in the pipeline with 7 projects are underway, 7 projects are pending statutory approval and 18 projects are under planning.

The value of property portfolio grew 7.1% to $72,096mn. Excluding the addition of commercial portion of Nan Fung Plaza, the value of retail properties increased by 5%. NAV per unit was $26.14, up 6.1%yoy, translated into 1.08x PBR at yesterday closing price.

No comments on buying of Laguna Plaza. The mgmt refused to comment on the news and said it would target on community retail malls which provide synergy and economic of scale.

2011年11月8日 星期二

PCCW's HKT spin-off

PCCW provide further information about the HKT spin-off. The offer price per share stapled unit under the global offering is currently expected to be HK$4.53-5.38, repreesenting the market cap of HKT will be $29.068bn - $34.522bn assuming no excercising of over-allotment option. PCCW will hold 63% stakes of HKT which worth $18.31bn-21.75bn. The value of HKT's share account for 79.6%-94.6% of total market cap of PCCW which is 22.98bn at $3.16 apeice.

HKT yielding

Financail implication of PCCW

2011年11月7日 星期一

China Shineway Pharmaceutical 3q result

Revenue declined 14% yoyin 3Q compared to 12% yoy growth in 1H11, mainly driven by a slowdown inQingkailing sales coupled with price reduction amid price adjustments in the tendering process across regions.


mgmt expects volume to pick up in 4Q due to pent-up demand.

Tingyi – PepsiCo Alliance

Tingyi – PepsiCo Alliance: Tingyi Asahi Beverage (TAB) acquires 100% of PepsiCo bottling business (CBL) in China; PepsiCo gets 5% stake of TAB and the option to increase to 20%. After the transaction, Tingyi’s interest in TAB will reduce 2.5% for 47.5% interest in CBL. If PepsiCo exercises options, Tingyi’s interest in TAB and CBL will further reduce to 40%. The deal needs approval from MOFCOM.

Expand product portfolio in Tingyi’s beverage platform: Tingyi will gain an exclusive license to produce and distribute Pepsico’s non-alcoholic beverage businesses in China, including carbonated soft drink (CSD), Gatorade branded sport drinks, Tropicana branded juice products and co-branded juice drinks. Currently, Tingyi do not have carbonated soft drink products but is strong in tea & water. The deal enriches the product portfolio.

The key is how Pepsico can turnaround: The margins of bottling business are low. CBL had suffered US$175mn loss in FY10. Tingyi said that the loss-making was related to 1) concentrate prices; 2) selling expense is high; 3) supply chain not efficient. The company has renegotiated concentrate price with Pepsi. Tingyi’s distribution channel and expanded product portfolio will also help to improve efficiency. It is expected that it will take 3-5 years for organization and management restructuring.

Management cautiously optimistic on beverage sector: Tingyi expressed the recent situation of China beverage industry. The chairman pointed out that beverage demand slowed in 2H and believed the sector will continue to be tough next year. The reasons include: 1) economic slowdown has affected demand on tea, and consumers shift to water; 2) some small players are aggressive in pricing; 3) consumers preference diversifying and mainstream categories losing market share, which the Chairman believes should be temporary.

惠理基金評論 - from信報及經濟日報

惠理基金表示,10 月份環球股市顯著反彈,惠理旗艦基金「惠理價值基金」錄得15.3%的淨升幅,是基金過去18 年來第四個表現最好的單月回報。據該基金了解,不少基金未能受惠於10 月份的升市,主要是因為基金持倉過於保守,加上升浪來得太快所致。
投資組合策略方面,惠理自10 月初開始,偏好長倉投資組合內的對沖平倉
另一方面,保留非核心消費品類股,並繼續持有可望受惠於通脹持續升溫的能源及黃金持倉。惠理預期市場未來可能出現「未知」的有利因素,為大市帶來驚喜。所指的是在美國聯儲局帶領下,環球央行有可能推出新一輪大規模刺激經濟措施,令市場投資氣氛好轉。

---信報


惠理集團(00806)9月管理資產值按月蒸發20%,10月趁反彈市迅速收復失地,按月錄得淨升幅15.3%。惠理更罕有地在季報以外發表特別評論,高調向投資者顯示10月戰績及對前景看法。
  惠理旗艦基金「惠理價值基金」經歷成立18年以來最差的第三季,但10月卻錄得成立以來第四個表現最好的月份,按月升15.3%,今年以來則錄得11.1%跌幅,仍跑贏恒生指數及MSCI中國指數同期下跌13.8%及15.2%(見表)。
看好消費品能源及黃金
  惠理周三(11月2日)向客戶發表10月份特別報告,並於昨日向傳媒發放。報告透露自10月初開始,惠理將長倉投資組合的對盤平倉,因而成功捕捉市場的反彈。該基金維持看好日常消費品、能源及黃金,其中黃金多年來佔倉5%至10%,受惠於目前通脹加劇的環境。

---經濟日報

2011年11月3日 星期四

Lenovo 2Q12 result

Lenovo’s reported 2Q12 earnings of US$144mn, up 32% qoq or 88% yoy, beating market consensus due mainly to stronger sales and lower taxes expense. GPM dipped mildly to 12.2% from 12.5% in 1Q12 due to low margin of NEC JV and Medion. However, OPM of 2.13% was up a bit from 1Q12’s 2.08% on lower OPEX.

Increasing market share gains. Lenovo’s total PC shipments grew 26% YTD outpacing the industry growth rate. Market share in Emerging Market (excl. China) increased to 8% from 6.9% qoq. Russia and India both reached double digits market share. Lenovo now become #1 commercial NB vendor globally, #2 in DT PC market and # 3 in consumer PC market. Though the EM segment remained losses, OPM improved qoq. Lenovo’s strategy is to gain shares first and believe higher share will drive profitability.

HDD price hike risk. Lenovo has seen a HDD price hikes as Thailand floods limited the HDD supply. Mgmt stated that the company would try to reduce costs from other components and change strategy to become less volume driven.

2011年11月2日 星期三

Citic Securities 3Q11 result

Citic Securities 3Q11 net profit came in at Rmb360mn, a sharp decline of 78% QoQ. The shortfall of result was mainly due to losses of Rmb712mn from the proprietary trading business which is the first time since 2006, and about Rmb2.37bn MTM loss through equity during 3Q11. With the investments losses during 3Q11, CS’ book value declined 3% qoq.

Total investments climbed to about 71.2% of total equity in 3Q (from 68.8% in 2Q) and equity exposure of the prop trading book also increased to 60% in 1H11 (from 7% in 2008). More exposure in “buy-side” business (i.e. prop trading and private equity investment) results in the earnings volatility of CS.

I regard CS as a call option, without the time value, of China A share market. Current bargain price provides a opportunity.

2011年11月1日 星期二

AAC Technologies 3Q11 result

AAC Technologies reported 3Q11 EPS of Rmb0.21, below the consensus on account of FX losses. GPM edged up 0.2ppt to 44% while OPM was down 0.4ppt to 27.7% due to raised R&D expenses for new projects and automation.

GPM in 4Q11 would further go up due to the improving product mix and higher automated production. AAC Tech also hopes to optimize cost structure by rising automation in long run.

Management guided the 4Q sales growth will be 10% qoq. For 2012, the sales growth drivers will be the increase of market share of key customer such as Samsung and Huawei/ZTE in China. Key component products, including speaker boxes and MEMS microphones, should continue to grow, along with increasing tablet contribution in 2012. Lens shipments will be kick-off in 4Q11. However, the new products such as antennas, optical lens, and ceramic-related products should only contribute a small part of business in 2012 continuously.