2012年10月31日 星期三

香港保險業的優勢

今日平果日報倪以理專欄談論亞洲保險業,倪以理為麥肯錫香港區總經理,有有關亞洲保險業的著作。訪問其中一段,頗為深刻,特以記存。

"問:為何香港市場對國際或內地客戶特別有吸引力?
答:非香港本地人的市場,主要有兩類。第一類是高資產客人,可能來自台灣、中國大陸等地方,因為香港稅率比較優惠、產品又多元化,吸引到他們作資產轉移和投資。此外,其他國家也未必有針對高資產客人的高保額、幾千萬元的保單,不少高資產客人因而來到香港。香港保險業成為相當蓬勃的離岸市場。
  另一個市場,就是內地中產客。他們在香港買保險產品,相對便宜。再者,始終人民幣並非流通貨幣,內地客在香港有更多投資、保險產品的選擇。
  過去幾年,大約兩到三成香港保險業新增契約,都是來自內地或者海外市場,可見這群客人,帶動了香港壽險業增長。
問:Joe,你在剛出版的新書裏,提到日本保險業經歷了迷失二十年,對於亞洲保險業有何啟示。
答:傳統保險公司賣保險,通常有約20年、30年保證年期及回報。保險公司就投資在國債、長期債券、物業及股票市場,去償付回報。但在亞洲,就欠缺20年至30年年期的債券投資。保險公司普遍面對極大的asset liability maturity mismatch(資產負債成熟期不匹配)的風險。
  比如說,如果保險公司保證你20年5%回報的產品,但今天它最長年期只可以投資在10年的7%回報的資產。沒錯保險公司在初期是賺到錢,但是如果十年後利率是2%,保險公司到時候就有很大的問題。尤其當市場利率長期低迷,公司就面對長期虧損,甚至面臨倒閉的風險。日本在九十年代出現長期低利率,這種negative spread令保險公司出現重大虧損。最後日本人壽保險業幾乎全軍覆沒,要由政府出手救助。其實中國大陸、台灣、韓國都有類似的問題,但是沒有那麼嚴重。

問:Joe,你剛剛提到亞洲面對maturity mismatch,但香港未有很成熟的債券市場,會否面對同樣的問題?
答:你要記得日本、台灣都是有他們的貨幣,所以他們大部份的投資是需要投放在他們的本地市場,不然的話他們就要承擔另外一種外滙的風險。香港的好處是1984年實施聯繫滙率之後,香港保險公司可以投資美元計價的長期投資產品,例如是美元的各種等級的債券市場。在芸芸亞洲貨幣地區,香港保險公司投資選擇更深,故相對其他地區,香港保險公司資金出路的問題較少。當然,如果香港貨幣政策改變,不再與美元掛鈎,就另作別論。香港的市場其實真的非常有優勢的。"
香港保險業其中一個優勢原來就來自與美元掛鈎,令保險公司有不同年期、不同cash flow(tresuary, mbs, abs),不同資產質素(government bond, corportae bond)的債券去選擇,可以推出非常多元化的產品,有利吸引需要財富管理的客戶。
其實成熟的金融市場,債券市場往往是最重要的組成部份(準確數字不記得,但美國債券市場規模是遠高於股票市場)。不過香港市場在這方面未見大發展,特別是零售債券市場。政府也不見積極推動(雖然推出了ibond,但市民當炒股多於當其為債券)。而與美元掛鈎則為保險業解決了香港債市發展不良的問題。


2012年10月30日 星期二

財經茄哩啡(完) - 唉! 又少一個好專欄

今期唔知開乜好,口淡淡,講吓女人未必係阿媽的投資方法。
如果將全地球投資者放埋一齊,多數會形成一個「常態分布」(Normal Distribution),最右邊,總會有一兩個巴菲特李嘉誠,靠投資眼光賺到變首富,最左邊,又必定有人輸突幾十副身家。
如果市場資訊對稱,人人知道咁多,公平競爭鬥眼光鬥心理質素,這個常態分布的投資表現平均數,應該係「零」,有人賺就有人蝕,不過,金融市場的零和遊戲,當然唔會咁公平,因為資訊永遠唔對稱,多數係小部分人贏大錢,大多數人輸剩條底褲。
股神巴菲特出晒名鍾意睇年報,聲稱2003年全世界唔睇好中國巨型國企之時,每股個幾港元投資中國石油(857)一役,就係睇年報睇番來,長江實業(001)主席李嘉誠亦曾經講過,以前鍾意睇年報睇吓人點做生意,睇咗幾千億上市資產回來,自己仲有千幾二千億元私己錢俾細仔買玩具,反而股神成份身家在冇派息的巴郡,餐餐隊漢堡包唔係冇道理的。
幾十年前財經新聞唔多,搵本年報望吓都難,搵到年報又識寶的,可能已經掌握到大量人冇我有的市場資訊,今時今日年報呢類基本資訊已經普及,於是投行賓架呢類正牌財經演員,就會搞到通街結構產品衍生工具,有咁複雜得咁複雜,金融市場的進化,永遠有需要將絕大部分投資者排除於真相之外,咁先可以確保,將大部分人,推向投資表現常態分布的負數區域,1978年的誠哥穿越時空來到2012年的香港,未必睇得明和記黃埔(013)及長江基建(1038)本年報。
惠理集團(806)擺明車馬靠投資搵飯食,年報內第一頁,通常會大大隻數字放幾個亮點認屎認屁,當中真係有意思的,只有兩項,第一個係過去19年「至少經歷7次地區性及全球性金融危機」(而仲未爆煲),第二項就係「每年造訪公司2,500次」(好勤力咁收集情報),講緊惠理40名全職芬佬的工作,就係全年頻頻密密咁去訪問上市公司,直接觀察公司業務同時面對面觀察管理層,令自己在資訊不對稱的市場處於強勢一方。
不過,市場資訊相對最平衡對稱的一刻,往往就係金融大災難的時候,因為大部分衰嘢都會現晒形,所以「別人恐懼時貪婪,別人貪婪時恐懼」呢句唔記得咗邊個講的說話,係順叔咁多年所見,散戶最有機會賺錢的投資方法。
睇財經評論、大行報告、股神天書,唔係唔得,不過應該當係刺激思維的方法,跟住人哋貼士追揸沽,就肯定錯晒,不如得閒去圖書館蒲吓,香港天綫、八九六四如果太遙遠,搵番1998年、2008年大股災時的舊報紙,睇睇報紙頭版講乜「重溫」一下、Relive一吓當日的市場氣氛,關關難過關關過,乜嘢股市海嘯金融核爆,地球咪一樣咁轉,到再有類似鏡頭出現的時候,問吓自己有冇勇氣將呢個阿媽係女人,但又最難實行的投資理論付諸行動。
香港人太多投資的衝動,太少理財的觀念,投資同儲蓄查實可以雙線進行,唔係叫你死慳死抵做度叔,而係當係鍛練自己的理財紀律,當係儲「股災基金」都好,點解股災殺到嚟的時候,咁多人零彈藥?
臨尾講多句,寫財經評論,本身是一項搵自己笨的投資,講錯嘢被人鬧到豬頭,唔覺意講中咗,好快就失去市場價值。唔經唔覺,在這裡起壇已經3年,實不相瞞,順叔表面上係個財經茄哩啡,事實上,真係一個財經茄哩啡,寫專欄只係副業興趣,最初一星期一篇500字,到舊年今日餐餐開飯,已經思窮想盡,體力腦力不勝負荷,係時候收爐,今次係財經茄哩啡最後一期。
望番之前的墨汁口水,滴晒汗,幫襯開的熟客應該知道,睇順叔寫嘢唔會發達的,因為得啖笑,唔係妄自菲薄,而係順叔天生鍾意搞笑多過寫財經,未來某日,社會棟樑又好,牛頭角順嫂又好,順叔知道有人因為睇過財經茄哩啡笑到咭咭聲的,順叔都會笑到見牙唔見眼的,祝各位笑口常開。
有緣再會。

(FROM AM730)

2012年10月21日 星期日

金管局向銀行體系注入港元

港滙在上周四及周五連番升穿7.75的強方兌換保證,金管局上周六終出手買美元沽港元,向銀行體系注入46.73億港元。這確實反映有資金流入。港元偏強本身並不代表有資金流入,因為有人買入亦即有人賣出,唯有金管局沽出港元,才是真正代表有資金流入。下圖為香港由2007年至今年九月底的貨幣基礎總額,隨著美國進行第一輪量寛,確令大量資金流入香港,貨幣基礎總額在這段時間大增超過一倍,港股當時大幅上升,確是一個資金市。


進行貼現窗活動前的貨幣基礎總額












資料來源:金管局

貨幣基礎 x Multiplier = 貨幣供應。貨幣供應常能影響產品及金融資產價格,當然如果Multiplier收縮,貨幣供應未有增加的話,影響便不會大。不過香港的Multiplier穩定,相信貨幣供應理應有所上升。


2012年10月16日 星期二

讀書摘要: 上流力, 陳振康著

總評
大部份內容都是一些老生常談的大道理,例如走出自己的comfort zone, 「無辦法」到「讓我想想辦法」,主要都是建議讀者要有正面思維。所謂知易行難,一本好書除了「講道理」外,其實應該有多點教人如何具體落實的方法,否則就只是得個講。例如,一位老闆問,公司如何可以賺更多,如果下屬只是答:「賣多些貨! 提高margin! 減少存貨!」這些阿媽原來是女人的答案,肯定會被老闆炒魷。

不過該書亦有可取之處,例如叫人善用網上社交工具等,亦能inspire我的一些想法。其推薦的一本書<The Greatness Guide>,我希望在閱後可以撰寫讀書摘要。

以下是一些我認為可作記存取句子/想法

-走出「安全地帶」
-We won't regret if we fail, we only regret if we don't try
-The Greatness Guide
-「求其寫,亂咁寫」
-六何法(即5W1H)
-別人靠什麼記起你? (建立自己鮮明形象)
-落「盤口」逼做健身
-認衰的藝術
「那時我年少氣盈,做事太衝動,怠到有點不服氣便辭工。這幾個月我已經想通了,是我自己的問題。如果有新工作,我一定會畀心機做,希望僱主能給我一個機會,重新開始。」
-一年100個新朋友
-善用社交工具

新奧能源(2688)正式放棄收購

今日有多單與組合持股有關的新聞:


中石化(386)聯手新奧能源(2688)計劃收購中國燃氣(384),引起長達10個月的紛爭,終於來一個了斷。於中燃成功迫使中石化撤回收購之際,雙方再進行戰略合作,並同意讓中石化及其他戰略股東以認購新股或其他方式投資,事情看以龐大,實則「十劃未有一撇」,看來是以虛招為各方打圓場而已。 記者:楊智佳
中燃昨日開市前停牌,然後於港股收市後,中燃及新奧能源與中石化分別發出內容完全相同的公告,指中石化及新奧收購中燃的要約不再繼續進行。中燃副董事總經理兼首席財務官梁永昌召開電話會議時回應:「好高興有咗決定!」他並解釋有關收購要約文件三度延期派發後,收購仍未能進行,故按例要終止。至於收購要約延遲的原因,是由於交易於內地遲遲未獲批准所致。

股東購新股無時間表

於終止收購的公告發出後不足一句鐘,中燃再發出復牌公告,提及與中石化訂立戰略合作框架協議,並同意中石化及中燃其他戰略股東,以認購股份或其他方式,向中燃作出投資。
框架協議內一個數字也沒有,主要是由雙方成立合資公司,各以其資源於液化石油氣、城市燃氣等方面進行合作,進軍液化氣零售、車用及船舶加氣市場,其中包括將一部份加油站改為氣站。另外,中石化亦會向中燃優先供氣,雙方亦會合作競投城市管道燃氣項目。
對於雙方於合資公司的股權比例、投資金額等條款,梁永昌表示,現階段仍難以量化,但指中燃主要為合資公司貢獻資產、業務、銷售渠道,不會全部投入現金;至於何時訂立進一步詳情,亦有待更多時間落實,亦沒披露合資公司的目標成立時間。他唯一透露的是合作規模很大,但不會令中燃現金流受壓。對於策略股東認購新股方面,現沒有時間表,各方亦沒有優先權。

中燃:三方都係贏家

對於撤回收購,梁永昌表示:「睇唔到三家有邊個輸,大家都係贏家。」他認為中燃與中石化之間的關係,並不是一個終點,而是一個起點。對於與中石化展開合作後,會否與北京控股(392)及昆侖能源(135)洽商合作,梁永昌則未有正面回應。
中燃股份申請於今日復牌,停牌前報4.3元。





據《上海證券報》報道,中石油集團經濟技術研究院一位內部人士透露,全國天然氣價改革擴大試點的方案已完成。按照此前計劃,四川和重慶等地有望繼兩廣之後成為第二批試點區域,另據中石油西南油氣田傳出的消息,該方案作為過渡方案目前已遞交國家相關部門。若推行,將有利中石油(857)。

將擴大試點

有業內人士透露,天然氣價改革的思路首先就是將現行以成本加成為主的訂價方法改為按市場淨回值方法訂價,目前上述方法經試點後已初步得到認可,擴大試點也會沿用這一機制。所謂市場淨回值法就是選取計價基準點和可替代能源品種,建立天然氣與可替代能源價格掛鈎的機制。
該人士指出,當前進口天然氣量越來越大,而由於價格倒掛導致進口氣虧損越來越嚴重,「如果再不改革的話,很快(企業)就會受不了,應該說改革很迫切。」
今年上半年,中石油的天然氣與管道板塊實現經營利潤同比大幅下降了84.7%,主要就受期內進口中亞天然氣及LNG虧損增大影響。
報道還指出,由於各省情況不同,談判意見各異,使得「一省一價」可能成為未來天然氣價改革的突破途徑。
分析師指出,天然氣訂價機制改革擴大試點最為受惠的應是國內最大的天然氣生產商中石油,同時對各家城市燃氣公司也將帶來價格傳導和利潤增厚。 

其他新聞:
近日大市仍於高位徘徊,陸續有公司趁高位抽水及減持,其中康師傅(322)被基金股東減持套現9.18億元;而中糧包裝(906)則於市場配股集資9.15億元,兩隻股份共於市場吸水最多達18.33億元。
根據銷售文件顯示,康師傅的機構股東擬在市場上配售約3826萬股舊股,配售價每股介乎23.75至24元,較昨日收市價24.25元折讓1.03%至2.06%,套現資金9.09至9.18億元。
事實上,康師傅今年累積升幅不足3%,但其實與年中低位18元比較,該股已反彈近35%。
該股對上兩個交易日的沽空金額已開始異動,近兩日的沽空比率分別為38%及27%。

中糧包裝配售籌9億

此外,今年累升達到71%的中糧包裝於昨日收市後擬以先舊後新方式配股,銷售文件顯示,中糧包裝擬配售1.66億股,配股價為每股5.51元,較昨日的收市價5.74元折讓4%,集資約9.1億元,擬用作廣州和杭州廠房設備投資,以及一般營運資金,而是次配售的安排行之一為中銀國際。
中糧包裝於上周五曾升至5.8元的今年高位。



中電控股(002)公佈今年首9個月經營數據,期內總收入按年升14.12%至775.09億元,主要由海外業務增長帶動。每股派第三期中期股息0.53元,按年增1.9%;一手500股計,不計手續費每手可收息265元。
按業務細分,作為「現金牛」的香港電力業務,期內收入升9.73%至255.62億元。截至9月底,香港業務售電量按年增2.9%,其中佔總售電量約29.1%的住宅類別升幅最大,按年升4.3%;佔總售電量39.7%的商業用類別,按年升2.2%。

未披露電費商討情況

7月集團位於青山發電A廠的一段運輸帶被颱風破壞,中電指相關維修工程已於9月中完成,較預期提早1個月,惟仍無提及相關維修支出具體金額,另沒有披露重建總部的進展,更沒有披露與政府就明年電費進行商討的最新情況。
作為中電最大海外盈利來源的澳洲,集團指出,於6月6日在雅洛恩礦場的Morwell河道支流河提發生崩決、導致河水湧入礦場事故,現時相關修復工程雖仍在進行中,惟受影響的4台發電機組中的3台已於7月20日起恢復運行,第4台亦已於上月6日重新投入運作。
4台發電機組雖已完全復恢營運,惟中電沒有進一步披露相關事故最終額外支出金額。截至6月底止的中期業績,中電澳洲業務盈利按年倒退42.24%至7.07億元,主要由於澳洲業務錄得約6.26億元公平價值變動虧損,以及為雅洛恩電廠進行維修等額外支出拖累。

內地電力需求放緩

內地業務方面,中電指內地電力需求增長放緩,加上陸續有新電廠落成,導致集團旗下電廠發電需求輕微下降,惟集團仍正爭取在防城港興建第2期電廠。至於集團參股的廣東陽江核電站項目17%的投資計劃,仍正等待內地監管機構審批。
中電昨於中午公佈首三季營運數據後,股價一度炒上,惟最後跟隨大市回落,僅以65.2元平收,無升跌。

資料來源: APPLEDAILY

2012年10月11日 星期四

12/10/2012

CKH proposes to dispose of and separately list the extended stay hotels business operated by the company at the hotels by way of a listing of stapled securities on the main board of the stock exchange.

CKH and HWL will retain less than 30% interest in Horizon Hospitality investments, which will cease to be a subsidiary of the company.


Information on the Hotels
1) Horizon Suite Hotel is a 15-storey hotel which opened in 2002 and is located in Ma On Shan, Shatin,
the New Territories, Hong Kong. It has a GFA of approximately 595,900 sq. ft., with 831 suites and
42 parking spaces and had an Occupancy Rate of approximately 88.6% during the six months ended
30 June 2012. The Group and HWL have a 51% and 49% interest, respectively, in this hotel and the
government lease for the lot on which this hotel was built will expire in 2048.
2) Harbourfront Horizon All-Suite Hotel is located in Hung Hom Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong and
opened in 2007. It has 1,662 suites in five towers with a GFA of approximately 1,202,600 sq. ft.
and 20 car parking spaces. It had an Occupancy Rate of approximately 91.0% during the six months
ended 30 June 2012. The Group has a 100% interest in this hotel and the government lease for the lot
on which this hotel was built will expire in 2051.
3) Harbourview Horizon All-Suite Hotel is located in Hung Hom Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong and
opened in 2006. It has 1,980 suites in three towers with a GFA of approximately 1,264,500 sq. ft.
and 400 car parking spaces. It had an Occupancy Rate of approximately 92.3% during the six months
ended 30 June 2012. The Group has a 100% interest in this hotel and the government lease for the lot
on which this hotel will expire in 2051.
4) The Apex Horizon is a 36-storey hotel which opened in 2009 and is located in Kwai Chung, the
New Territories, Hong Kong. It has a GFA of approximately 257,100 sq. ft., with 360 suites and 3
car parking spaces. It had an Occupancy Rate of approximately 94.0% during the six months ended
30 June 2012. The Group has a 100% interest in this hotel and the government lease for the lot on
which this hotel was built will expire in 2052.


Distributions
Horizon Hospitality Investments intends to distribute during the term of the deed of trust all of the
distributions which it receives from Horizon Hospitality (Holdings), after deducting operating expenses.
It is currently intended that Horizon Hospitality (Holdings) will declare and distribute (i) 100% of the
Total Distributable Amount of the Horizon Group in respect of each financial year ending 31 December
2012, 2013 and 2014 and (ii) not less than 90% of the Total Distributable Amount in respect of each
financial year thereafter, to the Trustee-Manager to fund distributions to be made by Horizon Hospitality
Investments.

評論
誠哥又出售資產莫非又是見頂時? 今次是採用信托方式出售上市,派息比率頗豐厚,且看財務數據公布的估值才判斷。

2012年10月9日 星期二

10/10/2012


Intime department store (1833) announced the total sales growth and SSSG for the 9 months ended 30 Sep 2012 was 16.6% and 7.5% vs 16.8% and 9.2% for the first 6 months.

Japan's top three carmakers yesterday said their sales in China dived last month in the wake of anti-Japan protests over disputed islands in the East China Sea. Toyota's drop was the steepest, with monthly sales falling 48.9 per cent year on year to 44,100 vehicles. Nissan's sales fell 35.3 per cent to 76,066 while Honda's dived 40.5 per cent to 33,931 units.

Top 10 funds available in Hong Kong - SCMP


Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800) The first ETF to hit Asia outside of Japan. It was created from the Hong Kong government-led massive intervention in the local share market in 1998, at the height of the Asian financial crisis. The government launched the fund to sell the shares.
The fund very efficiently does its job of tracking the Hang Seng Index - it has one of the lowest tracking errors seen among Hong Kong ETFs. The fund physically owns big chunks of the stocks underlying the index, which means it does not have to rely on derivatives or tricks to replicate the index performance, or complications like dividends payments. It's fairly simple and transparent - and it's cheap: expenses are just 0.15 per cent annually.
ABF Hong Kong Bond Index Fund (2819) This ETF holds Hong Kong government and quasi-government bonds (for example, MTR Corp debt). The fund fact sheet indicates a yield of just 3.6 per cent - but the management fee of 0.12 per cent is cheap. It gives exposure to Hong Kong government bonds that offer some cover against inflation, and with very low risk of default.
The fund works for investors who want exposure to safe bonds without losing their returns to manager fees.
ABF Pan Asia Bond Index Fund (2821) Another ETF, this one comprising Asian local currency debt. It's the same story as above - cheap and simple. The assets are riskier than above, but gains tend to be higher. The fund reported returns of 6.45 per cent in 2011. Asian currency bonds are volatile as they involve steep currency risks. But if this is the exposure you seek, this fund offers it, and for a low fee (total expenses are just 0.19 per cent).
Pimco Total Return Fund The world's largest bond fund focuses on government and government-connected issuers from around the world. Its annualised return for the past five years was 7.57 per cent, thanks to the fund's ability to invest in high yield securities, including emerging market debt of wide-ranging currencies. Management fee is 1.4 per cent.
The fund is also heavily invested in mortgage-backed securities which are benefiting from the United States Federal Reserve's current round of quantitative easing. (See Talking Points, page six.)
Value Partners Classic Fund The fund invests in Asia Pacific stocks with a focus on China equities. Returns are volatile year to year, but it has generated an average annualised return of 16.1 per cent since inception, in 1993. The management fee is 1.25 per cent, and a performance fee kicks in if the fund meets certain benchmarks. The fund has climbed 17 times in value since launch, versus a 294 per cent rise in the Hang Seng Index.
Schroder Asian Equity Yield The fund holds an array of Asian blue chips that pay generous dividends. As of end-August the fund delivered a 20.46 per cent return for 2012, more than double that of the MSCI All Country Pacific Index, an Asian equities benchmark. The management fee is 1.5 per cent.
Fidelity US High Yield Fund Hong Kong private bank investment specialists rate Fidelity's expertise in high-yield bond investing. This fund focuses on US securities. The yearly fee is low for actively managed funds, at 1 per cent, and for the past five years it has generated an annualised return of 8 per cent.
"The portfolio is highly diversified - 400-plus holdings - which reduces the inherent risk of the asset class," says a private banking product specialist.
Aberdeen Global - Asia Pacific Equity Fund The fund is a play on a rising Asia Pacific economies, and is exposed to all the volatilities of such growth. The annual management fee is a high 1.75 per cent. But it has performance to back that up: the fund has risen twelvefold since its launch in 1988, almost double the performance of the MSCI All Country Asia Pacific Ex Japan index.
Aberdeen Global - Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund The fund invests in some exotic debt, such as government bonds from Ivory Coast and Croatia. The average rating of its bond is BBB-, or the very cusp of investment grade, and it holds much that is below that level. The five year return is about 50 per cent, and regularly beats its benchmark, a JP Morgan emerging markets bond index. Management fee is 1.5 per cent.
First State China Growth The fund holds an array of China stocks, including those listed in the mainland (A and B shares). The management fee is high at 2 per cent per annum, but the fund has risen eightfold since its start in 1999 and usually outperforms its benchmark, the MSCI China.
Wyman Leung, an investment specialist for Altruist Financial, recommends the fund on the strength of the fund manager, Martin Lau. "His funds have a good and consistent track record, and this one stands out," says Leung.

2012年10月8日 星期一

分析鳯凰衞視(2008)

林少推介鳯凰衞視(2008),之前一直未有時間細看,最近終於抽空可以分析一下。

公司規模
鳯凰衞視(2008)2011年收入為36.39億港元相對電視廣播(511)52.08億港元收入的69.87%,然而,鳯凰衞視市值只有電視廣播的一半左右,為125億港元(電視廣播為257億元)。這反映電視廣播身為華語龍頭電視台所享有溢價。

業務
電視廣播為其主要收入來源,佔上半年收入55%,按年增長22.99%。第二大收入來源為新媒體業務,佔收入32.6%,按年增長37.66%。公司透過持有52%鳯凰新媒體擁有新媒體業務,鳯凰新媒體乃公司去年分柝到美國上市。

鳯凰衞視的定位我認為就是以有別於國內CCTV的內容去吸引觀眾,而這類觀眾應該大別於大眾,會是知識份子及較為富裕人士,這會吸引一些針對這些市場的企業、品牌到鳯凰衞視下廣告。

廣告生意並非完全不受周期影響,相對TVB(針對大眾市場)而言,定位較高的鳯凰衞視客戶群是會受到經濟於緩影響。雖說2009年時,鳯凰衞視仍有收入增長,而TVB是下跌,但我認為這是由於鳯凰衞視處於增長的市場(國內市場),相反香港是一個飽和市場。中國經濟放緩情況下,難怪鳯凰衞視估值會落後於增長較慢的TVB。

鳯凰衞視的機會來自於其新媒體業務,該業務有效leverage其電視業務制作節目的成本。smartphone 普及的情況下,得內容者得天下,這是鳯凰衞視擁有的本錢(當然tvb亦擁有強大內容,幸好tvb主要優勢來自其劇集)

財政狀況
公司主要資產項目為其PP&E,其餘大部份為流動資產項目,包括預付款項,按金,而公司現金豐富,現金合計28.53億港元。而借貸只有6億港元。

至於資本開支及現金流方面,過去4年,公司的資本開支2-4億港元為間,2008年2.78億港元、 2009年3.33億港元、2010年2.45億港元及2011年3.68億港元,與其盈利及經營現金流相若,顯示公司未有太多自由現金流。




股東及管理層


股東名稱
持股數量(百萬)
持股%
劉長樂
1,854
37.13%
中移動(香港)
983
19.69%
星空傳媒
871
17.44%
中銀集團
412
8.25%
羅嘉瑞
9.8
0.20%
公眾投資者
863.8
17.30%
總數
4993.6
100%



資料來源: 價值透視


主席兼行政總裁劉長樂,60歲,1983年進入中央人民廣播電台,曾任職記者、編輯、新聞評論員,後更升為國家司級幹部。1988年派往海外工作,自稱從原油貿易賺到第一桶金。劉長樂在移居海外後短短四年里就從事對資本總量要求很大的石油和房地產開發業務並獲利。1996年3月31日,劉長樂旗下的今日亞洲有限公司,與澳洲傳媒大亨梅鐸屬下衛星電視有限公司,及中國中央電視台屬下華穎國際有限公司共同創立鳳凰衛視,劉長樂其後成為大股東。2000年6月30日在香港聯交所創業板上市,改鳳凰衛視有限公司為鳳凰衛視控股有限公司,並出任董事局主席兼行政總裁。2002年6月11日,劉長樂收購亞視46%股份,成為最大股東。2007年,與陳永棋所持有的亞視股權將減至26.85%,故不再為亞洲電視最大股東。近年只作為鳳凰衛視控股公司的主席,而少有參與實質性的鳳凰媒體工作。其工作被劉春代替。主要工作為出席活動、論壇和一些場合,或完成一些文化、兩岸間交流的中間人。

估值
以中期業績每股盈利0.071港元計算,年率化市盈率為18倍。林少預測公司今年賺0.18港元,即14.27倍市盈率。預期其盈利增長率應保持在10-20%之間,能否貼近較高水平,主要視乎新媒體及戶外媒體業務增長率,這方面較難預測。

整體評分為7.915,屬吸引。


2012年10月3日 星期三

有趣新聞


Lenovo to start PC production in US next year - SCMP


Lenovo, the world's second-biggest supplier of personal computers, will start a production line for its Think brand notebooks, desktops and media tablet in the US next year.
The Hong Kong-listed company's first United States manufacturing operation will be in Guilford county in North Carolina, where it built a US$10 million fulfilment centre in 2008 to process orders in the country. The addition of a production line would cost US$2 million, according to a report yesterday in North Carolina's The News and Observer newspaper.
David Schmoock, the president of Lenovo's North America operations, told the paper that the initiative "reflects our confidence in the US PC market". He said Lenovo did not receive state or local incentives for the expansion.
Market research firm IDC said Lenovo was the fourth-ranked personal computer brand in the US in the second quarter of this year, with a market share of 8 per cent. It ranked behind leader Hewlett-Packard (HP), Dell and Apple.
Lenovo has described the US manufacturing operation as "the latest investment in Lenovo's aggressive strategy to expand its in-house manufacturing capabilities around the world".
A statement from the office of North Carolina governor Beverly Perdue said Lenovo was expected to create 115 jobs for the proposed production line.
The computer maker is expected to make a formal announcement of its US manufacturing plan today.
Its 200,000 square foot North Carolina facility employs a staff of 160.
Lenovo, which acquired the PC division of International Business Machines in 2005, has about 26,000 employees based in more than 60 countries. It does business in more than 160 markets worldwide.
The US production initiative will mark the latest strategic expansion effort in the Americas for Lenovo, which has corporate headquarters in Beijing and in Morrisville, North Carolina.
Last month, Lenovo announced its acquisition of Comercio de Componentes Electronicos (CCE), a personal computer and consumer electronics manufacturer in Brazil, for 300 million Brazilian reals (HK$1.15 billion) in cash and stock. The deal is expected to be finalised in the first quarter of next year.
"This move more than doubles our PC market share in Brazil, one of the world's fastest-growing and most important technology markets," Lenovo chairman and chief executive Yang Yuanqing said last month.
Bernstein Research senior analyst Alberto Moel said the CCE acquisition would push Lenovo's market share to No3 in Brazil, behind Positivo Informatica and HP.
Lenovo said its present business plan in Brazil did not anticipate any workforce restructurings as a result of the acquisition. CCE, which runs three business divisions, has about 5,900 employees.
The company also announced last month the acquisition of Stoneware, a US firm that specialises in cloud computing software and services. It employs 67 staff in Utah and Indiana.