2020年3月14日 星期六

一段往事

取自黃國英其中一本書,是一個令我很深刻的故事

09年初,某公司管理層宣佈回購股份,分析員及基金經理在會議中追問管理層,為何要在公司股價大幅反彈後才回購。管理層回答,縱使公司手頭現金很多,但當時(金融海嘯期間)業務前景未明,跟本不知道客戶找唔找到數、供應商供唔供到貨。所以即使股價低殘,公司仍然保留現金。

即使身位管理層仍然難以確定公司前景,更何況是分析員? 亦分映經營者同投資者的角度差別。

時至今日,做生意強調現金流為王,而非現金為王。現在做生意更依賴現金流(Asset light)而不是資本,生財工具都是租的,例如由買Server(資本開支Capex)變成Cloud computing,釋放出既現金就用晒回購同派息。生意及商業活動一停,現金流斷裂,生財工具都無埋,可以說是Off-balance sheet負債。

企業的價值在於中長期的現金流,但短期首要必需要生存,才能有然後,08年經驗就是眼見不少增長股倒閉於資金短缺之中。

5 則留言:

  1. 惡劣環境下仲有生意既就係皇道。。。

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  3. 認同, 在今年甚至下年, 相信大部分公司盈利, 派息方面都會受到影響, 很大機會出現收息股無息收, 增長股無增長的情況, 但只要公司能夠生存, 在未來的日子就可以賺回這 1, 2 年所損失的錢, 相信並不是一件難事

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